Just how quickly could rabbits multiply if nothing stopped them? The answer is astonishing – and it’s a question that has intrigued mathematicians for centuries.
Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci was pondering the reproductive potential of rabbits as far back as 1201. In his Book of Calculations, he explored how a population might grow from a single pair, leading to the mathematical pattern now known as the Fibonacci Sequence.
Under Fibonacci’s assumptions, the rabbit population would eventually reach 466. But his model was based on some decidedly un-naturalistic assumptions – after all, Fibonacci was a mathematician rather than a biologist.
So what happens if we build a different model? We asked statistical modeller Tom Fiddaman of Ventana Systems to crunch the numbers.
His scenario assumes that European rabbits produce an average of five kits per litter and that their offspring become sexually mature at three months. Once mature, females produce a litter every month. The model also alternates the sex ratio of each litter: one litter contains three females and two males, followed by one with three males and two females.
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And there’s one more crucial assumption: none of the rabbits die.
With all those conditions in place, the population would reach 1,182 rabbits by New Year’s Eve.
And that’s just the first year. By the end of year two, the theoretical population would have rocketed to around 345,000 rabbits.
In reality, of course, rabbit populations face plenty of obstacles to such runaway growth. Disease, predation and fluctuations in food availability all help keep their numbers in check.
