Panama’s ocean upwelling fails for the first time in 40 years. Now scientists are worried

Panama’s ocean upwelling fails for the first time in 40 years. Now scientists are worried

Losing this important ocean process could have detrimental impacts on coral reefs, fisheries and climate resilience, say researchers.


For the first time in over 40 years, Panama’s seasonal ocean upwelling has failed to appear.

Typically, strong trade winds between January and April bring cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean to the surface in the Gulf of Panama, a large inlet on the southern coast of Panama in Central America. This annual event supports productive fisheries and protects coral reefs from heat stress, keeping Pacific beaches cooler during Panama’s summer months.

But this year, a reduction in wind patterns meant the upwelling didn't happen, according to scientists at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI).

In a new study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers say the loss of this vital oceanographic process led to stark differences in water temperatures and productivity compared to previous years.

“This raises questions about how climate change is affecting ocean processes that coastal communities have relied on for millennia,” says STRI marine scientist Matthew C. Miller.

Chlorophyll concentrations in the oceans around Panama in February 2024
Chlorophyll concentrations in the oceans around Panama (blue = low, red = high) in February 2024, showing peak productivity in the Gulf of Panama during a period of typical upwelling. Credit: Aaron O’Dea
Extremely low chlorophyll concentrations in the oceans around Panama in February 202
Extremely low chlorophyll concentrations in the oceans around Panama (blue = low, red = high) in February 2025, revealing the failure of the 2025 upwelling in the Gulf of Panama – for the first time in at least 40 years. Credit: Aaron O’Dea

When coral gets too hot, it expels the zooxanthellae algae that live in its tissues, which normally provide it with colour and food. This causes the coral to turn white – a process known as coral bleaching – and reveal its skeleton, and it can die if the extreme heat persists. Coral reefs support a plethora of marine species, meaning the loss of the ocean upwelling could impact whole ecosystems.

STRI oceanographer Carlos A. Rodríguez emphasises that tropical upwelling systems, though vital to both ecology and local economies, remain poorly studied. “This is a wake-up call,” says Rodríguez. “We urgently need better monitoring and predictive systems to understand how the tropics are responding to global climate disruption.”

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